Spooky crude oil again

I am not God, I am not a crook : I will never pretend I can catch any given move from the beginning to its end. Never believe a guy who says such a non-sense. I am more than happy if I can grab one third of the move, usually the median section. And, more often, some ticks, here and there..

A warm hello to you all! I am on the mountains with family to avoid the awful heat of this bloody summer. After some comments on the previous post, i owe an explanation of my "disappearance". So, here is what I wrote to my friend Christian recently :

"..I continue to trade. As you know very well, nobody can stop this.. It is a kind of addiction.. better then to be profitable to avoid a complete ruin caused by addiction. During the 8 years I am in this stuff, i was losing money in the first 3, it took me another 3 years to break even and now i make some. But I easily give back the gains for a life with no forex and no pain. This is the reason I stopped posting in my blog. I don't want others to think that is an easy money scheme all this. It is not and the price to pay for these gains is your peace in mind, your life? I could destroy lifes with this damned blog.. " Hope you understand now..

The importance of the trailing stop

On the last trade, I moved the SL at +2 (from -10), as soon as I felt a little double top could happen there. I could lose the probable move up this way or I could save my skin..

A typical day

This is a typical example of what I am doing recently : wait for one of the numerous significant moves of CL during EVERY day and go with the flow.

Great moves

The usual, violent moves of crude oil, up and down without reason. Easy pips, IF you respect the stop loss.

Crystal clear

(Trading) cannot be simpler than that.

Tiny gains on a tiny market

I risked on the first trade only, then I saw the shallow market and I went for the (very) little.

Before the storm

I got a few pips and then I left monitors to take care of my daughters. When I came back, price was 70 pips down...

Micro-surgery

What are 9 ticks for the huge volatility of crude oil? Almost nothing. That's why it is relatively easy to catch them. No need to know what did the Iranians  in Ormuz. No need to anticipate and get the entire price movement (there are MANY, anyway, everyday). All I need is to cash in some ticks here and there, based solely on momentum. Today I had these 9 and 10 more a little bit earlier. It is relatively easy if you are not greedy. Like doing micro-surgery on an elephant.

Rusty

Back to trading after a loong time. I partially lost my reflexes and had to cope with fear. The fear was in the first and third trades when i closed them early. Fourth trade came close to my stop by 1 pip and then resumed up, I was lucky.

Under fire

Historic buildings in the center of Athens, neoclassical jewels of the 19th century are burning this evening, at the moment we wait for the crucial vote. The forces of chaos, the inner pulsions of some for destruction and death came to the surface again..

Black days

Hi Andrea, hi Christian!

I hope you are fine and family too!



I , personally disappeared from earth recently because i am in deep depression. I felt unable to communicate with anybody in the last month, except my children and wife. I don't trade since January, I lost my motivation, and I made childish mistakes before this -I am an awful trader when depressed. I have to finish with my day job, my two bigger clients (advertising companies) didn't pay me ( they got busted) and i lost thousands of euros, so I have to close business myself too. All that (my mood and situation) is the result of the disastrous moment of Greece right now. I saw some of my best friends and relatives to pass into poverty within weeks, losing jobs and their house. Not only the people but the middle classes also are heavily under pressure now in my infamous country. We live in a total and depressing uncertainty. Tomorrow is the most crucial day in modern Greece's history. The parliament must approve the new bailout terms. Tens of members of the parliament will not vote for this. If the terms are not voted, Greece will go busted within three days.

My occupations right now? I spend a lot of time with my daughters -the biggest remedy-, I listen to music all day long, I read, I help the suffering people when I can , I walk my dog. And I wait.

Post-NFP

Almost a lucky trade in post-NFP session. Price had compassion for my large stoploss and resumed down to give some gains.

Crude oil

Too late (entry) for the second trade, on already extended price move. Better wait for the necessary little correction.

The Artist (2011)

What a film! A splendid, nostalgic metaphor of the silent Hollywood movies era, with superb story, actors, art directing, photography, music!! A French director made this big achievement, a genious rendition of an all-american theme and I bet my account that no American  could do the same! Despite that, American critics are not blind : please read the enthusiastic review of the best of them, Roger Ebert.

An absolut must-see film, it made my first of the year evening.

Happy new year!

Happy new year to all!

Back from a busy December with very little trading. I was then in the mountains, whithout connection, for the last 8 days.

My best wish for you all and me : be wiser and less greedy, be less dependent of money and enjoy life. Life is so short.

I had the time to enjoy several books, cds, moovies recently. Please allow me to write about these.

Upozenie

Had a great hour today with the sublime Anna Maria Jopek. A beautiful lady from Poland, a splendid voice, here with the great Pat Metheny. Jazz with aethereal guitar and polish eloqution-a warm female voice, plus the best mucisians from this big country. An other big album from Anna Maria is the super Bosa.

Last minute disaster

I had some gains while e-mini got a steady pace just before the closing, when a news wire from European summit (Britain out of treaty) destroyed everything. It was late and I was tired and I had a lousy stop : -14 ticks.

End of a move

A few ticks

A few ticks gain from a single trade, based on price action and trendlines only. Life is simple.

..not so quiet

..Just an hour later and after a S&P anouncement, a big, big move. I wasn't there anymore..

Quiet Monday

Not much, on a quiet, boring Monday(till now). Even the crude oil is quiet today!..

Post-NFP

3 little soldiers in 10 minutes and done (?) for the day.

Waves

Same session as on the previous post, but on a wave form. I think oil looks better on a wave.

Thrills

Back to trading, after a long time. During my "vacation", I studied the behavior of several instruments on futures. Among them I liked crude oil the most. Lots of movements, very fast and brutal, and very fast reaction needed from the trader. My way to fight boredom.. Here are my first live trades on crude oil, with just 2 contracts. A roller coaster indeed, extreme emotions guaranteed every second! What I should precisely avoid !,, lol.

Bad timing on an easy market

The trend was strong and gave easy pips on the bwginning. Then, on the last two trades, a considerable risk was taken as I refused to close on the correctice moves, precisely because (I felt that) the trade was strong. This is the perfect way to get a -30 on the face, on a very fast retracement...

Post-NFP

The first trade could be closed earlier. An earlier exit could also give an earlier entry short. So the first short entry came late and, as a consequence, had some risk.

I am back

I have the "privilege" to get up every morning to see how the crooked (or silly?) politicians of my country destroy this beautiful country, Greece, every single day. I have the "privilege" to live with my health problems and depression while viewing how ugly are destroyed other people's lives. Life here becomes more chaotic, more difficult and dangerous every day. I have a big pain seeing this country in this situation, although I always felt completely stranger to the local mentalities.

As i was in a very bad mood and exhausted, I gave up trading three weeks ago to preserve my health and, more than this, because I simply lost motivation and felt very vulnerable to trade in that condition. I spent 20 days reading, thinking, listening to music and occupied with the remains of my day job. I am back today.

Today it was an easy day. Our prime minister (again!) had a cunning plan to destroy the European Union, and naturally, the euro collapsed.. THIS is the privilege to live in Greece, you know better here the daily fate of the single currency...lol.

A better entry

As I wrote in the previous post, entering at the resistance and going for the breakout is dangerous for my approach. Today I entered at the local temporary roof, as price was doing little HHs and HLs and could move up. Price moved back, just 1 pip above my stop... (and the doctor told me : no stress!..).  Then price reversed and I had some gains. A better entry is pointed by the arrow, on the MA.

Preparing for the break

I have stopped trading in the last days because of a health problem. I had only these trades a couple of days ago. As price was going to break the resistance (previous high), an intense movement forward and backward took place and my stop was hit. It was too risky to widen the stop, waiting for the almost sure (?) breakout. I have done this in the past and payed  a lot.. A tight stop method like mine is vulnerable when applied on breakouts. That's why I apply it mostly when price is in a mid-range.

Bye bye Steve

"Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.” 


“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of others’ opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.”

Last hour

Last hour of the US session. I had the last ticks of the extreme sell off, then I felt that the market was going to correct a little before the bell. But anticipations are theory, I wait to see that on the chart.

Anatomy of a loss

Late session again, just before the Friday's close. First trade entered late and gave a predictable loss. Second one was even worse, a revenge trade. I had to close it at my max acceptable loss, -9 ticks and then price reversed (as always happens). The two winners who followed were correct. Total -2,5 ticks. I was tired and despite that I spent my time and some money in front of the monitors and missed also a night at the movies..

Bits

Not much on this late session (busy week for me) when market is calm, preparing for the last move before the bell. Not expect more this hour, although I could initiate the last trade much earlier.

Swing

Opus

  Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader (Wiley Trading)
"This is not a book one can read. It is for study. One who studies this book is immediately faced with a challenge, visualize every phrase with what you have seen on a chart".

I was reading this in my hotel nights. Not suitable for the newbie, not a easy piece of trading study but it is the best book on price action I have read so far. There are many faults and repetitions and the writing is dry at best. Al Brooks is a serious man and he makes your effort to grasp his opus as big as possible, in order to increase your own effort!.. He is clever but also scholastic. He lucks one quality only : intuition. Trading is also intuition.

Back to trading

Back to charts, after a week of business traveling. I missed all the sound and the fury of previous days but I kept my rule to not trade in hotel rooms.

So today I followed the ES decline and had some ticks of gain. On the same time I was examining the collapse of the euro on an other monitor. It was tempting to follow this, as the gains could be much higher there, but I feel more secure on ES future now. More "stable" market, no slippage or price hunting, as I wrote before. I may trade again the euro in the next days, when it calms down. No casino feelings for me anymore..

Straight opening

No tricks at this NY opening : a straight, easy to catch, move up and then, boredom.

End of week

Quick gains and the priviledge to close for Friday and week early.

Risk

Risk taken at the last trade. But risk is considerably lower on E-mini trading (compared to highly volatile eur/usd). So this instrument "begs" for higher stakes with lower targets.

Day 3

One more day with S&P future and I am more than delighted! Razor-sharp precise moves and executions, no instant pull-backs (just to hit my 6-8 pips stop), (almost) no spread or slippage, the lowest commission and the profound sentiment that THIS is the scalper's instrument par excellence. A scalper can here enter trades with 10-20 contracts (or more) whithout fear of slippage or stop hunting due to lack of liquidity,  and go for 2-5 ticks easily and with minimal risk.

I entered a short at NY opening (16:30 my time) -tricky time- and got a loser. The rest was quite simple. 22 pips (I should say ticks! lol) today.

ES again

A few ticks here and there, on ES again.

New toy

I am a Gemini by sign and conviction : I cannot stay in one place, occupied with just one thing. Although profitable on the eur/usd market, I started, during my vacation, to study (off-line) the S&P future's charts. What I liked most was its smoothness : rarely violent events, but quiet, peaceful moves up or down. Much less stop hunting, due to the HUGE liquidity (10-times the eur/usd liquidity), which makes the false moves more difficult to produce. A perfect micro-climate for the scalper. I realy admired how perfectly (technically) the market is moved by the big guys : I only need to follow them.

So today I had my first live trades with the new toy. I traded just 2 contracts in a lazy, post-holidays session, while euro was completely flat. The first trade was wrongly entered far away from the median and it was inevitable to close it with a loss. Last trade could go further.

August

Eur/usd was in an almost perfect stuttering mode during my absence. Obviously the stakes are elsewhere for now : on eur/chf (spectacular drop on Aug.9th and rebound), on S&P future, not mentioning Gold of course. It is again the "casino fever" feeling in the markets (which I profoundly dislike), due to new fears about world economy.. This mentality is dangerous for a scalper, it can keep him trading endlessly and greed is the best way to lose money and your mind.. I will try to trade less and selectively in the next days..

Back from heaven

All good things come to an end, so did my vacation on the mountains and lakes...I was running around this lake every morning in the past weeks..I am back now.

Vacations time

I am on the mountains with family now and i intend to stay here till Aug. 15! My happiest period of the year, I am delighted to spend all my time with the kids, in a splendid location. No internet connection, but the ipad works full time (off-line), with pre-loaded books and the daugthers' games.. Euro can move up or down, i can hardly notice that.. Enjoy your summer you all!..

Going with a pace

Late entry - early exit

Post-NFP

Despite my false direction at the start, I took fastly (10 minutes) my 20 pips for the day and closed charts.

You must be fast

First trade was an easy one : last move up propulsed by the previous steam and sharp move (see the slope of the band). I knew it was probably a little move and because of that I closed at +5, almost at the peak, not waiting for more. Second trade is the best of these three : closed at -1, as soon as I felt the price immoblity (=reversal). Third was to cut the flower at the peak again and get out fast.